Monthly Archives: March 2019

UK businesses nervous of a “slow Brexit”

The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said on Tuesday: “All eyes are on the British Parliament.”

He wasn’t wrong. The latest twist of the Brexit saga will see British MPs take control of the process and hold so-called indicative votes on a variety of possible Brexit outcomes.

Prime Minister Theresa May is still pushing her deal and hoping for a third meaningful vote even as rumours circulate over her future.

The Brexit options that will be discussed include “No-Deal”, being part of a customs union, a Norway style deal with membership of the EU’s single market and many others.

MPs can vote for one or more of the options and the totals for and against each of them will be counted up.

But the uncertainty is impacting on businesses and consumers in the UK.

Investment already down since 2016

Speaking to Tadhg Enright on Good Morning Europe, Economist Vicky Pryce said that prolonging the Brexit process could cause even more harm.

“Since the referendum vote in 2016 businesses have been very reluctant to invest,” she said.

“We had very high employment in this country and for a while the world economy was doing well. But they haven’t invested.

“Business investment fell throughout 2018 and it looks like it’s continuing to fall and there are also some indications that the car industry is in trouble, the retail sector is in trouble. So this uncertainty has certainly mattered a lot.

“The calculations are that GDP has already shown itself to be something like two-and-a-half percent lower than it otherwise would have been.”

Pryce, who is chief economic adviser at the Centre for Economics and Business Research and a former joint head of the Government Economic Service, said this was evidence that a slow Brexit was not good for business but suggested that a good resolution might make the long wait worth it.

But she added that high levels of employment are not necessarily an indication of a healthy economy.

“It’s very easy to hire and fire people in this country,” she said.

“Instead of investing and committing to anything long-term, what we’ve seen is this extension of employment by firms which can then withdraw it at a moment’s notice.”

Liquidity injections creating confusion

She also suggested that actions carried out by Treasury are distorting the data.

“Since the referendum there has been this huge injection of liquidity into the markets by the Bank of England, not only through quantitative easing but also term lending, which has been subsidised. Lots of small firms have benefited from this.

“This has now come to an end and there is a serious worry about what happens next.”

While MPs consider possible alternatives to Theresa May’s Brexit plan, the Prime Minister will continue meetings with MPs in the hope of having yet another “meaningful vote” on Thursday or Friday.

(27. 3. 2019 via euronews.com)

 

Orbán: “EPP Lost Sovereignty and Is Dictated to From the Left”

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in an interview on Sunday said that EPP “has lost its sovereignty, is dictated to from the left” and urged all Hungarians “who love their country and support its interests” to participate in the European Parliament election on May 26.

“Brussels must be shown that what is happening in Hungary is what the Hungarian people want,” Orbán told public radio. “It is not in Brussels in the offices of parties pushed and pulled to the left and George Soros-type civil organisations that will decide what happens in Hungary and Europe,” Orbán said.

“We are not going to follow the dictates of Brussels if these are no good for Hungarians,” he added.

The prime minister said that when Brussels had demanded austerity measures in 2010, the Hungarian government sent the IMF packing and cut taxes. When they wanted “banks to be able to collect forex loans hundred-fold from the people” the government called banks to account. And when Brussels wanted high public utility fees, Hungary instead cut the utility fees, he added.

“Then they said we should let the migrants in and we built a fence,” he said. “And now they say we should accept returning migrants, but we refuse to approve the mandatory settlement quotas,” he added.
Commenting on German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s statement that it is unacceptable for certain member states to bar migrants, Orbán said pro-migration countries and their leaders had not given up on their “plan to change central Europe”. “But central European have the moral upper hand because, unlike westerners, they don’t impose their ideas about how to live on others,” he added.

“Hungary will not give up its basic rights … and Hungarians will continue to make decisions on important issues that determine people’s lives here,” he said.

“The Brussels elite lives in a bubble and has lost touch with reality,” he said, adding that national interests must be firmly planted and given priority.

Commenting on the ruling Fidesz party’s membership of the European People’s Party, Orbán said: “we have won time”. Given that 13 parties requested Fidesz’s expulsion from the EPP, the outcome was acceptable, he added.
“After the European elections, we in Fidesz will decide what’s best for Hungary; whether to carry on as part of the EPP or find our place in a new party grouping.” All of the 13 parties that wanted to expel Fidesz “are pro-migration”, he added.

Fidesz, he insisted, could not be expelled or suspended from the EPP. The Hungarian ruling party, he added, is governing for a fourth term was the most successful European party in the last three EP elections. Had the dispute reached a point going beyond a solution, Fidesz would have quit the EPP, Orbán said.

The prime minister said the EPP’s pro-migration wing was open about its plans to make a grand coalition after the EP, making arrangements behind the scenes with the greens, the liberals and the Socialists, he said. “They also know that Fidesz would never support this, the same way as Fidesz would never enter a grand coalition at home with DK,” the party of the former Socialist prime minister, he added.

He said the EPP was no longer the strong party that it used to be in the time of former German chancellor Helmut Kohl. “It has lost its sovereignty, is dictated to from the left and even wants to work together with it,” Orbán said. As a result, it has allowed itself double standards, especially when applied against central European countries, he added.

When after the EP elections Fidesz decides whether or not to remain an EPP member, then one decisive factor will be whether double standards still apply, whether the EPP becomes pro-migration and whether it stands in support of Christian values or continues to shift to the left, Orbán said.

He added that the truly important decisions were made in the European Council rather than at party meetings. “So [the EPP suspension] does not influence our ability to enforce [Hungary’s] interests,” he added.

Orbán noted that the ruling coalition in The Netherlands had lost its majority in the upper house and the party of Frans Timmermans had thereby suffered a defeat. While Timmermans, the lead candidate of the Party of European Socialists (PES) for President of the European Commission, is visiting Budapest and other European cities “to lecture us about democracy, his party has just been sent away with a flea in their ear by the people at home”.

“The likes of Timmermans, who are chased away by voters at home, must not be given positions in Brussels because this weakens EU cooperation,” he said.

Commenting on the two months before the EP election and referring to the government’s recent billboard information campaign, Orbán said: “They’re a bit angry with us in Brussels”. “But people need reminding … that even a few weeks ago, the EP approved, with support from Hungary’s left-wing MEPs, the tripling of the budget for migration in the next seven-year budget period.”

Orbán said the task ahead was to continue informing people about the plans of Brussels. Orbán said that hopefully, after the EP elections, “better times will come along so we can build a new Europe with Hungary’s active participation.”

(25. 3. 2019 via hungarytoday.hu)

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Polish-Hungarian relations flourishing: president

Polish-Hungarian relations are flourishing, driven by shared values and expanding business ties between the two nations, Poland’s president said on Friday.

Andrzej Duda was speaking at a news conference following one-on-one talks with his visiting Hungarian counterpart Janos Ader in the south-central Polish city of Kielce.

Duda told reporters he and Ader met on the eve of Polish-Hungarian Friendship Day to discuss bilateral and regional ties as well as cooperation within the European Union and NATO, in addition to a range of infrastructure and energy projects.

Meanwhile, Hungary’s Ader praised Poland for its strong economic growth and low inflation and unemployment. He also said that Poland was his country’s fourth-largest trading partner.

Poland and Hungary are close allies in the European Union. They also work together as part of a regional cooperation platform known as the Visegrad Group.

Polish-Hungarian Friendship Day, established by the parliaments of both countries and observed every year on March 23, has been marked alternately in Poland and Hungary since 2007.

(22. 3. 2019 via thenews.pl)

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Brexit: What happens now?

MPs have rejected Theresa May’s Brexit deal for a second time by a majority of 149. That’s a narrower defeat than the record 230 majority they inflicted on 15 January but it still leaves the question about what happens next wide open.

MPs will next vote on whether the UK should leave the EU without a deal.

If MPs vote against no deal, they would then go on to a further vote on Thursday 14 March on a Brexit delay.

So what happens if MPs back a delay? Theresa May would then request an extension to Article 50 from the EU.

Assuming the other member states all agreed, Brexit would be postponed. Theresa May says this should be for no longer than three months.

But what would happen then? There are still plenty of possible answers.

1. No deal at a later date
Delaying Brexit would not mean that leaving the EU without a deal was ruled out forever.

If the UK and the EU cannot sign off a deal during any extension then this would still be the default outcome.

So although a majority of MPs have indicated they are against no deal – something they could well repeat on 13 March – they would need to do something else to prevent it from happening as a matter of course.

2. Further vote on PM’s deal
Probably the simplest course of action would be for Theresa May to have another go at getting her deal through the House of Commons.

Although it’s been rejected twice, there’s no rule to say that she couldn’t bring it back again.

It’s even possible that this could happen before any extension kicks in. MPs could be given the choice between passing the deal with a short Brexit delay or rejecting it and facing a longer extension.

If they backed the deal at the third time of asking, legislation would be introduced to bring it into effect with a new Brexit date.

3. Major renegotiation
The government could propose to negotiate a completely new Brexit deal.

This wouldn’t be a question of carrying out minor tweaks and having a further vote.

Instead, there could be a complete renegotiation that would take some time.

The government could pivot towards one of the other models of deal that has been suggested – perhaps something close to the so-called “Norway model” which would involve a closer relationship with the EU than the current deal proposes.

If the EU refused to re-enter negotiations, the government would have to plump for one of the other options instead.

The withdrawal agreement – what it all means

Brexit: A really simple guide

Submit your Brexit questions by emailing haveyoursay@bbc.co.uk

4. Another referendum
A further possibility is to hold another referendum.

It could have the same status as the 2016 referendum, which was legally non-binding and advisory – in common with past UK referendums. But some MPs want to hold a binding referendum where the result would automatically take effect.

Either way, a referendum can’t just happen automatically. The rules for referendums are set out in a law called the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000.

There would have to be a new piece of legislation to make a referendum happen and to determine the rules, such as who would be allowed to vote.

It couldn’t be rushed through, because there has to be time for the Electoral Commission to consider and advise on the referendum question.

The question is then defined in the legislation.

Once the legislation has been passed, the referendum couldn’t happen immediately either. There would have to be a statutory “referendum period” before the vote takes place.

Experts at University College London’s Constitution Unit suggest that the minimum time for all of the required steps above is about 22 weeks.

5. Call a general election
Theresa May could decide the best way out of the deadlock would be to hold an early general election – in order to get a political mandate for her deal.

She doesn’t have the power just to call an election. But, as in 2017, she could ask MPs to vote for an early election under the terms of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.

Two-thirds of all MPs would need to support the move. The earliest date for the election would be 25 working days later but it could be after that – the prime minister would choose the precise date.

6. Another no-confidence vote
Labour could table another motion of no confidence in the government at any time.

Under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011, UK general elections are only supposed to happen every five years. The next one is due in 2022.

But a vote of no confidence lets MPs vote on whether they want the government to continue. The motion must be worded: “That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government.”

If a majority of MPs vote for the motion then it starts a 14-day countdown.

If during that time the current government or any other alternative government cannot win a new vote of confidence, then an early general election would be called.

That election cannot happen for at least 25 working days.

7. No Brexit
The European Court of Justice has ruled that it would be legal for the UK to unilaterally revoke Article 50 to cancel Brexit (without the need for agreement from the other 27 EU countries).

With the government still committed to Brexit, it’s very likely that a major event such as a further referendum or change of government would have to happen before such a move.

However, any delay to Brexit would certainly lead to questions about whether the ultimate destination was going to be a reversal of the 2016 referendum.

It’s not totally clear what the process would be. But an act of Parliament calling for Article 50 to be revoked would probably be sufficient.

Other possibilities
After Theresa May survived a challenge to her leadership, the Conservative Party’s rules mean she won’t face another for 12 months.

But she could always decide to resign anyway, if she can’t get her deal through and she’s not prepared to change course.

That would trigger a Conservative leadership campaign which would result in the appointment of a new prime minister.

She might also come under pressure to resign if MPs pass a “censure motion” – that would be a bit like a no-confidence vote but without the same automatic consequences. Again this could lead to a change in prime minister or even a change in government.

Whoever ended up in charge would still face the same basic range of Brexit options though.

(12. 3. 2019 via bbc.com)

Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May gestures as she delivers a keynote speech on Brexit at Waterfront Hall in Belfast, Northern Ireland, on July 20, 2018. With a trip to Northern Ireland this week, May began a tour of Britain to convince voters to back her blueprint for close economic ties with the bloc after Brexit next March. / AFP PHOTO / POOL / Charles McQuillan

EU chief Frans Timmermans piles pressure on Romania over corruption reforms

Brussels chief Frans Timmermans has used a visit to Bucharest to hit out at Romania over its stance on corruption and judicial reforms.

There is a concern over legislation protesters say threatens judicial independence and decriminalises some graft offences.

Romania, like its neighbour Bulgaria, remains under European Commission (EC) monitoring regarding these reforms via the Cooperation and Verification Mechanism (CVM). Annual reports are published to track progress.

“We want to make sure that the fight against corruption isn’t abandoned, that we continue this fight because it’s very important for the future of this country,” said Timmermans, vice president of the EC, who was in the Romanian capital to accept an honorary degree from the political science university SNSPA.

“The problem for me is that since the publishing of the CVM we’ve seen no progress, we’ve seen a refusal of the commission’s documents by the Romanian government.”

But the ruling Social Democrat party (PSD) rejects all criticism from Brussels and says repealing the legislation is not the solution.

“All those who ask for the repeal of the emergency decree are people who don’t know the law, they’re clueless,” said Eugen Nicolicea, vice-president of the Chamber of Deputies.

“If you withdraw something that modified another law, so if you take back the changes made by this decree, you don’t restore the initial form of the law.”

There have been regular protests against what campaigners see as a weakening of the fight against corruption and the country’s rule of law.

“The political power has to have a contact with us, a dialogue,” said Emil Ionescu a philosophy professor taking part in a demonstration in Bucharest.

“This does not happen now! I don’t think this is the right reaction from the part of the political power.”

Political analysts say the Romanian judiciary is in danger of being instrumentalised and politicised by the government in the context of a trend of illiberalism throughout Europe.

“It is the same direction as in the case of Fidesz or the ruling party in Poland, so it’s about the interest to change Europe, the orientation of the commission – the future commission – and the parliament,” said Christian Pirvulescu, a political science professor at SNSPA, told Euronews. “They want to impose these illiberal ideas in the interior of the mainstream European parties.”

Romania, at the helm of the rotating EU presidency, is ranked by Transparency International as one of the European Union’s most corrupt countries.

Bucharest maintains its dedicated to eradicating corruption and shares the union’s core values.

(13. 3. 2019 via euronews.com)

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Russia seeking to sow discord, NATO must react: Polish president

Russia is seeking to pit NATO members against one another, and the Western military alliance must react, the Polish president has said.

Speaking at a meeting of regional leaders in the Czech capital on Tuesday, Andrzej Duda was quoted as saying that Russia aims to “pit NATO members against one another, to incite discord and doubts among states, between us and our neighbours.”

Duda and his counterparts from the Czech Republic and Hungary gathered in Prague on Tuesday to mark exactly two decades since their countries became members of NATO.

Responding to a question at a press conference, the Polish president agreed with a statement by former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright that Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to divide the Atlantic Alliance.

“It is obvious to me that such actions are being carried out by the Russians,” Duda said, as quoted on his official website.

“Each Russian provocation, including instances of military [intrusion]—a plane violating the air zones over the Baltic Sea, attempts to enter the air space of individual NATO countries, or various other activities—are … a kind of security test,” he added.

Duda also said in Prague that it is important that NATO countries react and show unity, public broadcaster Polish Radio’s IAR news agency reported.

Threats that loomed over Poland for more than 40 years are now returning, President Duda warned in a speech in Prague on Tuesday.

Duda said on Monday that becoming a member of NATO 20 years ago definitively underlined Poland’s emergence from the Russian sphere of influence.

(13. 3. 2019 via thenews.pl)

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Estonia’s centre-right opposition party wins general election

Estonia’s opposition centre-right Reform party won the country’s general election on Sunday over the governing centre-left Centre party.

According to Estonia’s State Election Office, the Reform party won with 28.8% of the vote, while the Centre party trailed in second place with 23.1% of the vote.

The far-right Estonian Conservative People’s Party took 17.8% of the vote, which was more than double its result in the last election.

Following Reform’s win, party leader Kaja Kallas is set to become the country’s first female prime minister, although she will first have to tackle difficult negotiations to form a governing coalition.

Most opinion polls since late last year had put Centre in front, although recent surveys had indicated a tight race, with some suggesting pro-business Reform could pull ahead.

Reform had 29.4 per cent of the vote, while Centre stood at 22.2 per cent and the far-right EKRE at 17.7 per cent, more than double its vote in the previous election, the State Electoral Office’s count of votes from 428 of 451 districts showed.

Kallas, a 41-year-old lawyer and former European Parliament member, took over as Reform leader less than a year ago. The party’s founders include her father, Siim Kallas, a former Estonian prime minister and EU commissioner.

Estonian elections are typically decided late in the evening when votes from the large Russian-speaking districts, home to many supporters of the pro-Russian Centre party, are registered.

Estonia’s president is due to nominate the candidate for prime minister in coming days, after which the nominee will then begin negotiations to form a coalition as all parties fell well short of winning a majority.

Kallas looks likely to face a difficult task in hammering out a coalition government in a 101-seat parliament where all other parties have ruled out governing with the far-right EKRE.

“The winner of elections has to form a coalition and in the current situation, it will be interesting and challenging,” Ratas told national broadcaster ERR.

Kallas repeated that she ruled out governing with EKRE but was open to any other potential tie-ups.

“We keep all the options open for a coalition,” she said. Estonia enjoys strong economic growth and low unemployment, but regional differences in the country of just 1.3 million people are vast.

(4. 3. 2019 via euronews.com)

Poland could be security hub in region: Polish president

Poland could become a security hub on NATO’s eastern flank, Polish President Andrzej Duda said on Thursday.

At a press conference accompanying a summit of the so-called Bucharest Nine in Kosice, Slovakia, Duda said that for such a scenario to unfold “a stronger presence of NATO forces in Poland” would be necessary, Poland’s PAP news agency reported.

The summit was attended by leaders from Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania, as well as NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

Topics on the agenda of talks included the war in Ukraine, the situation in the Black Sea and the state of affairs in the Baltic states, according to Duda.

The Polish president said: “We are unanimous as to what nowadays poses a real threat in terms of military security in our part of Europe.”

Duda added: “We agreed that the biggest problem is the return of Russia’s imperial ambitions… to which the North Atlantic Alliance as a whole must react accordingly.”

The Polish president told journalists that NATO should maintain its open-door policy not only in terms of North Macedonia but also Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. He said that such an approach “encourages collaboration and reforms in [aspiring] countries and [NATO’s] policy should entail spreading security to the largest extent possible.”

Duda also said that the leaders discussed the idea of strengthening NATO’s presence in the Black Sea region as “it is important to show [the alliance’s] readiness to defend itself.” He added: “It’s definitely an issue … the North Atlantic Alliance should seriously consider.”

Romanian President Klaus Iohannis said that a further boost of NATO’s deterrence potential on its eastern flank should include a greater presence of the alliance in the Black Sea. He added that NATO “command and control structures should be gradually shifted” to the alliance’s eastern flank.

(1. 3. 2018 via thenews.pl)

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Govt Responds to EC: Brussels Wants to Legalise and Boost Immigration

According to the Hungarian government’s response to the European Commission, Brussels intends to legalise and boost immigration. The document released on Sunday is a detailed response to the commission’s Feb. 28 statement criticising the government’s communications regarding European Union policy on migration.

The eight-page rebuttal presents the EU plans and decisions that the government says would increase migration into Europe.

In connection with the document, Csaba Dömötör, the state secretary of the cabinet office, said in a statement that various public statements and voting records showed the intentions of the EU.

The plans reflect a clear intention: to legalise immigration rather than stop it. This intention is well served by the introduction of quotas, migrant bank cards and migrant visas.”
Meanwhile, the Government Information Center said in a statement that the government advocated honest dialogue, even if this involved disputes.

The statement published on the government’s website kormany.hu refers to a Brussels resolution stating that “the possibilities for legal migration must be ensured”. This, the statement said, “is extremely telling”.

“This is not a secret plot but an open intensification of cooperation on immigration,” it added.

The statement said that whereas the commission insisted that financier George Soros had nothing to do with the EU’s migration policies, “the billionaire’s published statements coincide with plans being made in Brussels”.

The government said the scheme to relocate migrations based on compulsory quotas had not been withdrawn and the rights of EU member states to protect their borders would be overruled.

The commission, it added, supported the introduction of a migrant visa while, “bafflingly’, denying such a plan.

At the same time, no denial was given concerning money given to organisations that aid migration, it said. Already, “tens of thousands of migrants” receive topped-up bank cards, the government maintained. The commission has acknowledged funding the scheme for migrant bank cards, it said, adding that 64,000 people had received money through card.

In its rebuttal, the government also noted that the commission backed pilot projects that would legalise migration. Accordingly, EU member states would propose pilot schemes with African countries to “replace irregular migration flows with secure, orderly and well-managed legal migration opportunities”. The government document says

The European Commission does not seek to stop migration but the legalise it”
Brussels, it insisted, planned to reduce the EU funds of member states that take an anti-migration stance in a number of ways. The commission’s insistence that “there is no correlation between EU funding and support or rejection of migration” is untrue, the document adds.

“We are committed Europeans and we won’t surrender,” the government said in the rebuttal. “We want a Europe that respects the rights of nation states, builds on its Christian values, protects its communities, and can maintain its long-term security. This is why we speak out whenever we see all this endangered,” it added.

State Secy: Opinion of Hungarian people more important than party discipline
While the government listens to criticism, the opinion of the Hungarian people is more important than party discipline, the state of secretary for international communications told public radio on Sunday.

Commenting on criticism of the Fidesz government by the European People’s Party in connection the government’s billboard campaign, Zoltán Kovács said the government had a duty to inform the Hungarian people what was at stake in the upcoming European Parliament election.

He said it had become clear in the past weeks that the government’s billboard campaign was factual. Kovács insisted that the European Commission’s policies would make Europe into a continent of immigrants.

The information campaign will continue until March 15, he said.

Asked about Fidesz’s possible ejection from the European People’s Party, Kovács said this would be “unreasonable”. Fidesz, he added, represented common sense, in line with the opinions of the Hungarian people and more and more Europeans.

Migration endangers the very foundations of European culture, he added.

Kovács said the commission was overreaching, preparing decisions secretly and forcing member states into a corner. He cited the decision on migrant relocation quotas, rejected twice by the European Council in 2015, yet eventually “forced” through.

The EU, he said, should remain a forum of cooperation between equal member states. In cases where there is no complete agreement between them, there should be no compulsion to accept a given policy, he added.

Fidesz: Brussels wants to open gates to millions of economic migrants
Brussels wants to open the gates to millions of economic migrants, the ruling Fidesz parliamentary group’s spokesman told a news conference in the city of Debrecen, in eastern Hungary, on Saturday.

János Halász said the plans for economic migrants were “Brussels’ most dangerous”.

“It’s not about refugees but about allowing millions of economic migrants into Europe,” he said, adding that economic migrants were illegally entering Europe together with real refugees.

If the gates are opened wider to millions of economic migrants from Africa and the Middle East, not only would be impossible to hold them back but they would be attracted to Europe.”
In connection with a demand by Manfred Weber, the head of the European People’s Party, that the government halt its poster campaign depicting commission president Jean-Claude Juncker and financier George Soros, as well as demands by several EPP parties to exclude Fidesz from the party grouping, Halász said Fidesz saw its task as to protect European values and halt migration.

(4. 3. 2019 via hungarytoday.hu)