Monthly Archives: January 2021

Alexei Navalny’s investigative video about “Putin’s Palace” has been viewed millions of times. It mentions many Russians — and one German. How is Matthias Warnig, a business manager and former Stasi agent, involved?

Matthias Warnig is, in various ways, an exceptional person. The 65-year-old is the oldest German friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin and the most active German in Russian business circles. He is a former Stasi agent who became a banker in the 1990s. Since then, he has sat on the supervisory boards of numerous German-Russian banks and companies.

He is currently the CEO of Nord Stream 2, and happens to play a part in the latest YouTube video by Alexei Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK), in which Russian opposition activists uncover an extensive network of corruption around the construction of a palatial estate for the Russian president on the Black Sea coast.

In the video, Navalny mentions Warnig when talking about an exchange of letters between Putin’s ex-wife Lyudmila and a German friend of hers in the mid-1990s. One of the letters was sent from Warnig’s fax machine. The Russian opposition leader, citing a DW article, says that Warnig gave financial assistance to Putin, a former KGB officer in Dresden, and his family. It’s thought the two may have met through their respective secret services in the former East Germany, but the official line is that they only made contact later, in St. Petersburg, after both had changed profession.

Meeting Putin ‘not a problem’
Warnig likes to avoid publicity. He prefers to operate in the background. The Austrian newspaper Die Presse published an interview with him in 2018, in which he was asked how often he meets Putin. Warnig answered that the Russian president didn’t have a mobile phone, before adding: “But if I want something and need to see him, we arrange it.”

In the 20 years Putin has ruled Russia, Warnig has become the most influential German business manager in the Russian economy.

In Die Presse, Warnig said he had accepted these positions for two reasons, which were both coincidental and mutually dependent. “I accepted most of the seats on supervisory boards in 2012,” he said. “Nord Stream 1 was completed in 2012, and my contract was about to run out. So I was open to taking on new assignments. At the same time there was a conflict between the then president, Dmitri Medvedev, and the government. Medvedev decreed that all ministers and senior civil servants had to give up their positions on supervisory boards. And then they needed people to fill these posts.”

He dismissed speculation that, as Putin’s confidant, he exercised a degree of control over the running of the business. “No, absolutely not. I’m not a Kremlin mouthpiece. And I don’t report to the Kremlin, either, or have cozy chats about what goes on there.”

From Rosneft to Schalke 04
The list of Matthias Warnig’s employers includes some of the biggest companies in Russia. He has sat on the supervisory board of the state oil companies Transneft and Rosneft since 2011. On the Rosneft board he works closely with Gerhard Schröder: The former German chancellor, also a friend of Putin, has been its chairman since 2017. Schröder, however, is not mentioned at all in Navalny’s film.

Warnig is also on the supervisory board of Russia’s VTB bank. And until 2015 he held the same position with the St. Petersburg bank Rossiya [“Russia”] – which, according to both Navalny’s video exposé and various media reports, is linked to President Putin’s inner circle.

From 2012 to 2018, Warnig headed the supervisory board of the aluminum manufacturer RUSAL, but he had to give up this position after US sanctions were imposed on the company. However, the German executive quickly found another — in his homeland. In 2019 he was given a seat on the supervisory board of German football club FC Schalke 04, whose main sponsor is the Russian energy company Gazprom. Some fans protested against his appointment.

Main project: Nord Stream 2
Warnig’s most important project at the moment is the construction of Nord Stream 2, a gas pipeline from Russia to Germany that is being laid along the floor of the Baltic Sea. Warnig is the managing director of the Swiss-based company Nord Stream 2, whose most important co-owner is Gazprom. Before this, for ten years, he ran the company’s predecessor, Nord Stream, which laid the first twin pipeline across the Baltic Sea. Both projects should primarily benefit the eastern German states, which means that for Warnig they’re close to home: He is originally from the state of Brandenburg, which surrounds Berlin.

It’s an irony of fate that Warnig’s most important project was endangered when the Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny was brought to Germany for treatment. In August 2020, Navalny survived a near-fatal poisoning on Russian soil with the nerve agent Novichok. Calls for the Nord Stream 2 project, already under US sanctions, to be frozen or stopped altogethergrew increasingly loud. In view of the fact that Germany and Russia plan to continue with the controversial project despite this resistance, Warnig could be said to have successfully fulfilled his role as a lobbyist for Russia in Germany.

(24. 1. 2021 via dw.com)

The German owner of Polska Press media group, recently acquired by the Polish state oil giant Orlen, was preparing to sell the company already since 2016. Since then, the company managed to move its Polish property and PLN 221 million to an external entity based in Germany. As the office space is likely to remain in German hands, even after taking over Polska Press newspapers, Orlen will still have to pay rent to the former owner.

On December 7, the state-run oil giant Orlen became the sole owner of one of the country’s largest media companies, gaining control over a majority of Polish regional daily newspapers, almost 120 local weeklies, and some 500 internet portals. While the exact details of the transaction remain shrouded in mystery, media reports suggest that acquiring Polska Press from Verlagsgruppe Passau Capital Group could have cost Orlen as much as PLN 120 million. Neither of the two companies denies the information.

Daniel Obajtek (Orlen’s CEO and a confidant to Jarosław Kaczyński) and the ruling Law and Justice party portray the takeover as the first step in the right-wing government’s plan to “repolonize” domestic media. Polska Press journalists are already preparing for a wave of politically-motivated layoffs, while independent NGOs concerned with media freedom warn that the ruling camp has just bought itself an instrument that will give it a leg up in future election campaigns.

The editorial line of some of the newly-acquired media outlets has already taken a more pro-government turn.

For several weeks, “Wyborcza” has been trying to find out the details of the transaction. What is it that Orlen actually purchased? Does the proudly-announced repolonization of regional media also include real estate such as the newspapers’ editorial offices and printing houses?

It is important to know this, considering that real estate has been a key asset when the Polish state was taking over regional newspapers in the early 1990s. Their editorial offices were often located in valuable places, usually in city centers, and their property value far exceeded the worth of the outlets themselves. It was the value of the “Express Wieczorny” headquarters that allowed Jarosław Kaczyński’s first party, Porozumienie Centrum (Centre Agreement), to survive financially. Incapable of successfully managing the newspaper, the party sold the outlet to a Norwegian company but kept a valuable property in the center of Warsaw, which later became the ruling Law and Justice party’s economic lifeline.

„We cannot answer that question”
What was left of the vast assets that belonged to Polska Press? How much property did Orlen acquire together with the newspapers? To find out, we asked directly at the source. The answer we received from Polska Press headquarters was rather enigmatic: “The transaction includes press, internet, and printing businesses, as well as some real estate”- reads the message from the media group’s spokeswoman, Joanna Pazio. When asked about specific real estate, however, she did not respond.

Orlen’s response was slightly more extensive: “We cannot provide any information on the media group’s assets, nor share specific details about our integration plans towards the company. Once the transaction is completed, PKN ORLEN will take over all the items listed in the company’s balance sheet”- the company’s spokeswoman, Joanna Zakrzewska, told us.

Here, again, our question as to what property has been sold as part of the transaction was left unanswered. Orlen emphasized that “the purchase of Polska Press is still an ongoing process”, and that: “all necessary corporate approvals required by generally applicable laws and internal regulations in terms of purchasing the company’s shares have been obtained, including the approval of the Supervisory Board. The transaction was thoroughly analyzed by both our company experts and external advisors and due diligence was conducted in the financial, legal and tax areas before the decision was made”. Moreover, Ms. Zakrzewska also pointed out that “following regulatory requirements, the company asked the Office of Competition and Consumer Protection for permission to take over the Polska Press media group, and is currently awaiting the final decision”.

Real estate controlled by spin-off companies
The editor-in-chief of one of the Polska Press dailies, who spoke to us on the condition of anonymity, says that his editorial team moved to a rented office several years ago and pays rent to VGP Real Estate company. It is a spin-off company of Polska Press that manages all the group’s buildings, including its headquarters at 45 Domaniewska Street in Warsaw (the property belongs to ASD Real Estate, another entity separated from the media enterprise). The company also owns a modern printing house (and the headquarters of “Dziennik Zachodni”) in the city of Sosnowiec. According to open data sources and officially available financial reports, even the media group’s headquarters (housing the “Polska Times” editorial office) are not owned by Polska Press. The media group pays rent to VGP, and the headquarters are formally owned by ASD Real Estate, a spin-off company. VGP and Polska Press are linked by Mr. Dariusz Świąder (deputy CEO of Polska Press, and the CEO of VGP) and the main owner, a German company HKM Beteiligungs GMBH based in Seefeld. Here, the family of the person who founded Neue Passauer Presse has the majority of shares. HKM has (or had, given that it is in the process of selling out) its newspapers mainly in Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia. The least of them are in Germany (Bavaria).

VGP was founded in 2012 and has been in the real estate business since the very beginning of its activity. Editorial teams were being moved to external offices, and their former premises were then put on the market. The process accelerated after PiS came to power in 2015, and has reached its peak in 2017. At that time, VGP bought properties in Gdańsk, Kraków, Łódź, and Sosnowiec from Polska Press for PLN 92 million. The money went to HKM as a “refund of special surcharges”, with which the German owner supplied Polska Press throughout the years. A total of PLN 221.427.000 was moved to Germany between 2017 and 2018. Selling the headquarters of a former printing house in the center of Kraków has been VGP’s last major real estate deal. Until 2019, it housed the editorial offices of “Gazeta Krakowska” and “Dziennik Polski”. Both were moved to rented offices, and the printing house was sold for PLN 46 million to Skanska company. Currently, it is a construction site for three office buildings.

What is more, in September 2020, Polska Press sold the headquarters of its Toruń-based “Nowości”. The price remains unknown. Journalists were asked to work remotely and heard that they’ll soon be moved to a new editorial office.

Will Orlen have to pay rent to a German company?
Although Polska Press and VGP still haven’t published their financial reports for 2020, data from previous years show that none of the editorial offices purchased by Orlen own their premises anymore, and the money from their sale, together with the “refund of special surcharges”, is either with the main owner (HKM) or VGP, which wasn’t part of Orlen’s purchase.

Polska Press decided to start a surcharge refund process in 2016. It is now clear that this was the beginning of the company’s plans to sell its entire media business. Sharp reductions in media investments and year-on-year savings started around that time as well. Today, the Polska Press media group is but a shadow of its former self. Its newspapers, once leading local outlets, now have sales of a few thousand copies. The most-widely circulated newspapers are “Gazeta Pomorska” (21.000 copies), “Dziennik Zachodni” and “Głos Wielkopolski” (both selling some 14.000 copies). The remaining papers have a circulation of less than 10.000. At the same time, the group completely neglected the project of providing paid online content, and subscription-based news portals constitute but a marginal part of its media business.

According to our sources, in the autumn of 2020, the media group’s management asked the chief editors of Polska Press newspapers to prepare the process of reducing expenditures by 20%. Layoffs and reductions of already meager salaries were on the horizon. Editors were not informed about the plans to sell the company. Meanwhile, the transaction must have already been well underway.

We have asked Orlen whether the editorial offices of the newspapers it purchased would remain in their current locations after the transaction was completed. Should it be the case, the favorite scapegoat of the ruling Law and Justice party, the infamous “Germans”, will continue to make money off of Polish media, and the state-owned oil giant will have to pay rent to a German company. We have not received an answer as to what Orlen plans to do about it.

(21. 1. 2021 via wyborcza.pl)

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte will face a vote of confidence in parliament on Tuesday, seeking the Senate’s support for his teetering government as it battles a deadly coronavirus pandemic.

He is fighting for political survival after former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi pulled his party’s support from the government last Wednesday.

After winning a confidence vote in the lower house on Monday, Conte will try to repeat the feat in the upper chamber. Whereas in the Chamber of Deputies the coalition parties — the Democratic Party (PD) and the populist Five Star Movement (M5S) — have a majority, in the Senate they lack some 15 votes on paper.

The prime minister needs to win votes from centrists and non-aligned parties to try to compensate for Renzi’s departure.

“In all probability, Conte will obtain the confidence of the Senate,” said Giovanni Orsina, head of the Luiss School of Government in Rome. “That means that the Conte government will probably survive, but with a reduced majority, so with a much weakened position in parliament.”

In that scenario, Giuseppe Conte’s position at the head of government would not be threatened in the short term, but his margin for manoeuvre risks being significantly reduced, at a time when Italy is facing its worst economic recession in the post-war period because of the pandemic that has killed more than 82,000 people in the country.

“The future of the country will depend on the choices each person makes in these grave moments,” he warned lawmakers in parliament on Monday.

Matteo Renzi, who was prime minister from 2014-2016, has said he will likely abstain in the vote. This could maintain Conte in power but might only delay an inevitable crisis.

The former leader’s Italia Viva party accuses Conte of using the pandemic to centralise power and not doing enough on certain issues including education, infrastructure and the management of the pandemic. It also opposes Conte’s plans to spend the €209 billion the country will receive from the European Union to revive the economy hit hard by COVID-19.

Renzi also complains of being ignored by Conte and demands more say in his government. Critics in turn accused him of undermining stability for political gain.

If no workable government emerges, one possibility would be for Italy to hold snap elections. But an important factor in the parties’ calculations is that opinion polls point to victory for a coalition on the right between Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and Matteo Salvini’s far-right League party.

(19. 1. 2021 via euronews.com)

Poland’s president and prime minister have called for the release of prominent Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny after he was arrested on his return to Moscow.

President Andrzej Duda said in a Twitter post on Sunday evening that “the actions of the Russian authorities towards Alexei Navalny must not be without consequences for that country’s relations with the international community.”

“On behalf of Poland, a member of the UN Human Rights Council, I appeal for international solidarity in this situation,” Duda added.

Meanwhile, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki wrote on Twitter that “the detention of Alexei Navalny is another attempt to intimidate the democratic opposition in Russia.”

He added: “A quick and unequivocal response at the EU level is essential. Respect for civil rights is the cornerstone of democracy. I appeal to the authorities in Russia to immediately release the detainee.”

Alexey, don’t give up!’: Polish FM

Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau tweeted: “I strongly condemn the detainment of Navalny and hope for his immediate release. I express my solidarity with all Russian people who share the ideals of the detained Russian opposition leader. Alexey, don’t give up!”

Police arrested Navalny on arrival in Moscow on Sunday after he flew home to Russia from Germany, where he had been treated, for the first time since he was poisoned last summer.

The Reuters news agency reported that the move, which could see Navalny jailed for 3.5 years for allegedly flouting the terms of a suspended prison sentence, could reignite political pressure on the West to tighten sanctions on Moscow, especially against the contested USD 11.6 billion Nord Stream 2 project to build a gas pipeline from Russia to Germany.

In a case that drew wide international attention, Navalny was poisoned last summer by what German military tests showed was a Novichok nerve agent, a version of events the Kremlin rejects.

(18. 1. 2021 via thenews.pl)

Germany’s foreign minister said the prominent Kremlin critic “should be released immediately,” echoing calls from other European countries and the US. Navalny was detained on his return to Russia after his poisoning.

Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said on Monday that Russia should release Alexei Navalny, who was detained on his return to Russia on Sunday after several months receiving treatment in Germany.

“After his convalescence, Alexei Navalny chose consciously and of his own free will to return to Russia because that’s where he feels his personal and political home is,” Maas said on German public television. “That he was detained on his arrival by Russian authorities is utterly incomprehensible.”

The German foreign minister said Russia was bound by its obligations to civil liberties and the rule of law and that these should also apply to the prominent critic of Vladimir Putin’s government. His comments echoed those from several other European allies and the US.

UK Foreign Minister Dominic Raab spoke out against the arrest, calling it “appalling” and saying Navalny had been “the victim of a despicable crime.”

“Rather than persecuting Mr Navalny Russia should explain how a chemical weapon came to be used on Russian soil,” Raab wrote on Twitter.

Dutch Foreign Minister Stef Blok echoed Raab’s sentiments, saying that Navalny’s arrest was “very disturbing.”

“I call upon the governemnt of Russia for his immediate release and to bring those responsible for the attempt on his life to justice,” he added.

Jake Sullivan, US President-elect Joe Biden’s national security adviser, has criticized Moscow for arresting Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny, calling the Russian politician’s arrest “not just a violation of human rights, but an affront to the Russian people who want their voices heard.”

“Mr. Navalny should be immediately released, and the perpetrators of the outrageous attack on his life must be held accountable,” Jake Sullivan wrote on Twitter.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also condemned Navalny’s arrest in a statement on Sunday.

“We note with grave concern that his detention is the latest in a series of attempts to silence Navalny and other opposition figures and independent voices who are critical of Russian authorities,” Pompeo said.

Detained on ‘fraud’ charges
The Russian opposition politician was detained at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo airport on Sunday after he flew to Russian from Germany, defying warnings of his arrest.

The anti-corruption campaigner was nearly killed in a poisoning attack in August last year. Navalny, 44, says the poisoning was ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin denies any involvement.

Experts in Germany, where Navalny was being treated, concluded that he was poisoned with Soviet-designed nerve toxin Novichok.

Russia’s federal prison service FSIN said Navalny had been arrested over “multiple violations” of a 2014 suspended sentence for fraud charges. The opposition leader “will be held in custody” until a court ruling, they said.

European Union condemns arrest
Earlier on Sunday, European Council President Charles Michel lashed out at Russian authorities for detaining Navalny.

“The detainment of Alexey Navalny upon arrival in Moscow is unacceptable. I call on Russian authorities to immediately release him,” Michel wrote on Twitter.

The EU’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell urged Moscow to “respect Alexei Navalny’s rights and release him immediately.”

“Politicization of the judiciary is unacceptable,” Borrell tweeted.

Reacting to Navalny’s arrest, rights group Amnesty International said the Russian politician had become a prisoner of conscience. It accused Russian authorities of waging “a relentless campaign” to silence him.

“Navalny’s arrest is further evidence that Russian authorities are seeking to silence him. His detention only highlights the need to investigate his allegations that he was poisoned by state agents acting on orders from the highest levels,” said Natalia Zviagina, Amnesty International’s Moscow Office Director.

Call for EU sanctions against Moscow
European countries have unequivocally slammed Russian authorities over Navalny’s arrest, with French officials expressing “very strong concern.”

“Along with its European partners, it [France] is following his situation with the greatest vigilance and calls for his immediate release,” the French foreign ministry said in a statement on Sunday night.

Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis has called for EU sanctions against Moscow. “The detention of the opposition leader and poisoning survivor Alexei Navalny is totally unacceptable. The EU should discuss further sanctions on those involved,” Landsbergis told AFP news agency.

European Union members Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia also called for the “imposition of restrictive measures” against Russia.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki urged the EU to respond quickly to Navalny’s arrest.

“The detention of Navalny is another attempt to intimidate the democratic opposition in Russia. A swift and unequivocal response at the EU level is essential. Respect for citizens’ rights is the cornerstone of democracy,” Morawiecki wrote on Twitter.

“I appeal to the authorities in Russia to release the detainee immediately,” he said.

In September, Morawiecki suggested that Russia was a “hostile regime,” after Germany said Navalny had been poisoned with a Novichok nerve agent.

Italy’s Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio on Sunday dubbed the arrest “a very serious matter.”

“We ask for his immediate release. And we expect his rights to be respected”, Luigi Di Maio tweeted.

(18. 1. 2021 via dw.com)

Germany’s Foreign Minister Heiko Maas speaks at a news conference with his counterpart from Kosovo, Meliza Haradinaj Stublla, at the Federal Foreign Office, in Berlin, Germany, November 3, 2020. Odd Andersen/Pool via REUTERS

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Saturday congratulated Armin Laschet in a letter on his election as the leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

“I am convinced that the long-standing cooperation between Fidesz and the CDU has greatly contributed over the past two-and-a-half decades to the development of Hungarian-German ties and the outstanding economic success of our countries,” the president of Fidesz wrote in the letter.

“In this spirit, I am looking forward to working together in the future and I can assure you that you can rely on me and on Fidesz’s support to advance our pragmatic cooperation based on mutual respect,” Orbán said.

He expressed hope that there would be an opportunity to personally discuss in the near future the challenges facing the two political communities as well as Hungary and Germany.

(17. 1. 2021 via hungarytoday.hu)

The Christian Democrats are choosing someone to lead their party — not necessarily the country.

Replacing Angela Merkel is getting complicated.

Despite months of campaigning coming to a head on Saturday, the result of the race to become the next leader of Merkel’s conservative party will offer little clarity on who will replace her as chancellor.

One thousand and one delegates from the ranks of Germany’s Christian Democrats will convene digitally to select a new leader from among three candidates: Armin Laschet, the premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, Norbert Röttgen, chairman of the German parliament’s foreign affairs committee, and Friedrich Merz, a corporate lawyer and former MP.

Initially scheduled for last spring, the vote was delayed twice due the pandemic. Given that the CDU leader has traditionally also become the party’s candidate for chancellor, the race was seen as a first step toward replacing Merkel.

It’s beginning to look like little more than a diversion. Many voters appear not to want any of the three as Germany’s next leader, having their eyes set instead on a politician who has yet to even declare his interest: Bavarian premier Markus Söder.

According to a poll published by Der Spiegel this week, which echoes similar recent surveys, nearly 40 percent of Germans believe Söder, 54, would be the strongest conservative candidate. In addition to the three men vying for the CDU leadership job, the pollsters include Health Minister Jens Spahn, a popular conservative politician said to be positioning himself for a run at becoming chancellor.

Söder and Spahn, 40, have engaged in a shadow campaign in recent days, debating the best approach to dealing with a pandemic that shows no signs of weakening despite a tightened lockdown.

After Söder called for mandatory vaccinations for personnel caring for the elderly, Spahn came out in opposition, saying the government should emphasize education rather than coercion.

“We’re going to rely on arguments and information,” Spahn said.

Spahn also tried to bolster his European bona fides, warning against nationalist tendencies on the question of vaccines.

“Together, as Europeans, we are affected by the pandemic,” said Spahn in a speech to parliament. “Together we will overcome it. While nationalism is growing in other countries, Europe is moving closer together. This is in our interest — economically, politically, socially.”

Shadow race
A Spahn candidacy would mark a major departure for the CDU, which has long been a bastion of the proverbial old white man. Spahn, for one, is gay and married — no small matter in a party that opposed same-sex marriage until recently. He’s also much younger than many of the CDU’s traditional voters.

Spahn’s supporters emphasize his clear-eyed conservatism on issues such as fiscal responsibility, the transatlantic alliance and cultural identity. Despite recent controversy about whether Germany was prepared enough for the coronavirus vaccine rollout and other issues surrounding the pandemic, he has generally received high marks as health minister.

He is also a favorite of the party’s influential youth wing, the Junge Union. Though the group has officially endorsed Merz’s candidacy for the CDU leadership job, Tilman Kuban, the head of the Junge Union, said this week he still regarded Spahn as a possible candidate for chancellor.

Even so, Spahn lacks the executive experience of either Söder or Laschet, the leaders of Germany’s two most populous states. And while Spahn’s approval ratings have risen in recent months — even overtaking Merkel as Germany’s most popular politician in one survey — he continues to trail Söder by a wide margin on the question of who is better suited to become chancellor.

In the Spiegel poll, Söder received more than double the support of Merz, who finished second with 19 percent. Söder’s lead was even bigger among conservative voters, with 54 percent ascribing the Bavarian with the best chances of becoming chancellor.

The result is particularly impressive when considering that Söder has yet to confirm his interest in running. He’s been coy about the issue for months, responding to persistent questions by insisting that his “place is in Bavaria.”

There is no official timetable for selecting the candidate for chancellor, though many conservatives believe the decision should be made by March — six months ahead of the election. The decision will be made in a consultation between the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, which Söder leads.

Normally the CDU, which is several times larger than the CSU, has the right of first refusal for the candidacy. The CSU has fielded a candidate twice for the conservative block, losing on both occasions.

But many think Söder, a gregarious politician with salt-of-the-earth appeal, could break that streak.

Even so, the internal competition has made the already challenging task of replacing Merkel all the more fraught.

Laschet and Merz have both made clear they expect to become the conservative standard-bearer in the election should they win the party contest. Neither is likely to give up the once-in-a-lifetime shot at Germany’s highest office without a fight.

The question is how much collateral damage that would create.

Betting on Green
Though Merz leads most polls among the three candidates running for the CDU job, many observers believe he might do more harm than good in a general election.

A staunch conservative, Merz is popular with the right wing of the CDU and voters who have previously supported the far-right Alternative for Germany.

But Merz, whose comments about homosexuals and refugees (not to mention his history as a corporate lobbyist) have drawn ire from both Green voters and others on the left, is less popular among women and centrist voters. These voters, a coalition pieced together by Merkel, are the key to the CDU’s 16-year hold on power.

Even though the conservatives continue to dominate the field with about 37 percent in the polls, some in the CDU worry that a Merz candidacy could end up galvanizing Germany’s left, opening the door to a three-way coalition between the Greens, Social Democrats and the Left party.

By contrast, Söder has been courting the Greens — now Germany’s second-strongest party — casting himself as modern conservative with an ecological world view.

If current polls hold, a coalition between the conservatives and the Greens would have a clear majority of nearly 60 percent; this is why most political watchers in Berlin are putting their money on Söder.

Throughout its history, the CDU has placed pragmatism (read: staying in power) before ideology. If it sticks to that playbook, replacing Merkel might be easier than it currently looks.

(14. 1. 2021 via politico.eu)