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SUPERPOWERS COME AND GO

The last thousands of years taught us many things, of which there is something to examine when thinking about the leader states of present and future World. In history, humankind had many superpowers among all the people; those enjoying privileges never thought their position would be at risk. Their fortune helped them acquire wide borders for their countries, drive others into yoke, and benefit from not only their own, but other nations’ economy. However, ancient Egyptians, Chinese, Romans, German-Romans are all gone forever. The Nazis and the Soviets are also parts of the dark history, and yet, the United States of America had been the sole international rule-maker for only a bit more than a decade after the iron curtain fell.

Since then, the Russian Federation is hiking to the peak once again, and the Democratic Republic of China is stronger than ever before, and their goals are still dimensions above their present international influence. We can also take notice of a new and yet strange friendship in the Middle East, involving Turkey and Iran. These two are also stepping closer to Russia, but knowing their relations in history, it is still undecided what to predict in their mutual future.

THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE, A PIXEL IN THE PICTURE

The vision of processes is much clearer, if we have a look at China. While for example Turkey, Iran, North Korea or Japan are taking actions to step forward in their regions, China – just as the USA and Russia – is dreaming for more. Not only dreaming, they are acting with more dynamism than any other power recently. The sum of China’s Foreign Direct Investments has been intensely growing in the past decades, reaching al time high in December 2017[1]. These data show us a clear picture of their intentions and endeavors; there must be a strong verdict and very strict implementation behind these processes.

As we Europeans hear about the New Belt and Road Initiative every day, we can easily mislead ourselves by thinking that this strategy is everything China is following now. And really, they put big effort into Belt and Road, as it is crucial for them to sell their goods to Europe and Asia to keep up their fast-growing, already seeming to be peaking economy, which is waited by many to collapse very soon[2]. Others, whose opinion is more comfortable to share for me, think that the superpower has its own tools to defend their budget.[3]

The BaR Initiative focuses on Eurasia, but this is simply a step forward in selling their goods mainly to developed European countries. Nowadays, when the EU rulers are starting to limit Chinese investment into the old continent, and also to withdraw investments and factories from China, we can clearly see that the main pillar of China’s future economy is not only this Initiative, but there have to be many more ideas in their books. Even if they are expected to reach huge incomes from the New Belt and Road Strategy, most of their hopes are relying on other parts of the World.

CLOSER TO THE OPPONENTS

China perceived very well how to strengthen their international economic influence in the 21^st century. Not like a hundred years ago, today you can’t operate with aggression when making friends. As the Russians also turned their harsh behavior lower since the Cold War ended and started to manipulate media, China’s most important weapon is their generous dollar policy. Either planning for long-term, or optimizing present positions, they are always likely to use money to satisfy their intentions. One region to watch is the Caribbean, where they are building infrastructure for free, or by issuing free loans for the constructions. Clearly, they can’t really demand much from these new friends; Caribbean countries are small islands with small population and without too many natural resources. The Chinese government simply follows the Soviet Union by making close friends near to the United States. For that they don’t even have to fund guerrilla wars, only to spend some money for the benefit of ordinary people of the region[4].

EVEN CLOSER TO THE DOWNS OF TODAY, UPS OF TOMORROW

One region is even more important, as the basis of China’s future influence, and that is Africa. Western countries still keen to think of poor African countries as places to ignore. To where we have to send aid and support, and from where we will never get anything back (except some lucky businessmen who benefit from taking advantage of the poor people there – for example miners). China looks at them from the other side of the road, and from the other aspect of history. While Africa is an unsolved problem for Western civilization, it is the biggest possible opportunity for China. They think of these countries as those who will develop very fast soon, then vigorously join the international circulation of money.

And then, these countries will make friendships, and that’s what China perfectly found out. Why not to make friends before it seems to be out of interest? So they decided to fund constructions – building hospitals, schools, highways, ports – so intense that the continent had never seen before.

China sponsors students majoring in medicine, engineering, economics and journalism.These students tend to move home after their university studies, mainly because of Chinese visa policy. Therefore, it means no brain-drain for those countries who need experts the most. The country is very popular among African students, and they are grateful for the opportunity, without which they would probably never had graduated.Not like China, other countries keep good students after their studies, which further destructs Africa’s future. China sends them home, building a better – and of course China-friendly – Africa. Someday, the so-called black continent will be an equal partner to the developed world, over and above, with Chinese-speaking economic, political elites.

Africa is also the pathfinder of Chinese military spread, as the superpower opened its first ever military base abroad in Djibouti last year[5].

CONCLUSION

If we look back on the past two decades, when China quietly started to conquer the World, we conclude that their diplomacy, even if it’s not classical Scandinavian diplomacy, but maybe as effective, as the one of Sweden or Norway. The next two decades will answer us, whether China could keep up economically with its challenges – at home and abroad – or will struggle with its old population, big debt and maybe badly used foreign investments. My bet is on their success.

Sources:

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/foreign-direct-investment

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/china-s-economy-on-brink-collapse-due-to-high-borrowing-chinese-bank-chief-117111100112_1.html

http://mckinseychina.com/5-reasons-why-chinas-economy-wont-collapse/

https://idsa.in/idsacomments/china-growing-influence-in-the-caribbean_sbmaharaj_030816

https://edition.cnn.com/2017/07/12/asia/china-djibouti-military-base/index.html

[1]https://tradingeconomics.com/china/foreign-direct-investment

[2]https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/china-s-economy-on-brink-collapse-due-to-high-borrowing-chinese-bank-chief-117111100112_1.html

[3]http://mckinseychina.com/5-reasons-why-chinas-economy-wont-collapse/

[4]https://idsa.in/idsacomments/china-growing-influence-in-the-caribbean_sbmaharaj_030816

[5]https://edition.cnn.com/2017/07/12/asia/china-djibouti-military-base/index.html

And here are somo photos from the latest conference of the TCP Continue reading →