Category Archives: News and events

One Czech politician called claims Russia had been behind a deadly 2014 warehouse explosion ‘the largest attack on our territory since’ a Soviet invasion in 1968.

The Czech Republic’s dramatic accusation that Russian intelligence agents were responsible for a deadly 2014 warehouse blast is threatening to destabilize relations between the two countries.

Already, the Czech government has announced it is expelling 18 Russian diplomats over the incident, which left two people dead. But more broadly, the country is showing hesitancy about some plans that would have brought the two countries closer.

When Prime Minister Andrej Babiš and Interior Minister Jan Hamáček laid out their findings in Prague late Saturday, Hamáček also announced he would not travel to Moscow this week, as planned, to negotiate the purchase of the Russian Sputnik V vaccine. In addition, Industry and Trade Minister Karel Havlíček said Sunday that the Russian energy company Rosatom would likely be excluded from bidding on a contract to build the Doukovany nuclear power plant a new unit — the largest government contract in Czech history, at €7.67 billion.

And within the Czech Republic, there’s a push from some corners for a more general distancing between the two countries, three decades after Prague broke away from Soviet domination. Some are even harkening back to the moment the Soviets invaded Czechoslovakia in 1968, putting an end to a brief period of liberalization.

“This was the largest attack on our territory since 1968,” said Ondřej Veselý, chairman of the parliamentary foreign affairs committee.

Petr Kolář, former Czech ambassador to both Russia and the United States, called on Prague to keep future relations with the Kremlin to a minimum.

“We will leave only the ambassador, the consul and the most necessary staff in Moscow, and we will want the same for the Russians here in the Czech Republic,” he told the news service Deník.

The crisis over the 2014 explosion kicked into overdrive late Saturday, when Babiš said the Czech intelligence service had uncovered “clear evidence” that created a “reasonable suspicion” that officers from Russia’s GRU military intelligence service had caused the explosions of two ammunition depots in the southeastern town of Vrbětice in October 2014.

Czech intelligence officials had also identified the 18 expelled Russian embassy personnel as members of the Russian GRU and SVR services.

“The Czech Republic is a sovereign state and must respond accordingly to these unprecedented findings,” the Czech prime minister said. He added that the country’s president, Miloš Zeman, who is close to the Kremlin, had been informed of the situation and expressed his “absolute support.”

At the same time, Czech police announced they were still searching for two Russian men in connection with the explosions, noting they had used passports with the same names as the passports used by suspects in the 2018 attempted assassination in Britain of former Russian military intelligence officer Sergei Skripal.

The Czech weekly Respekt reported that the two Russian agents, named as Anatoly Chepiga and Alexander Mishkin, were in the Czech Republic and probably on the site of the ammunition depot in October 2014 when the deadly explosion took place.

According to Czech police, the two men used the two Russian passports as well as a Moldovan and Tajikistan passport while in the Czech Republic.

Respekt also reported that the depots targeted by the Russians belonged to a Bulgarian arms dealer who was selling weapons to the Ukrainian interior ministry and National Guard, whose members fought in the war in Donbas against pro-Russian separatists.

A historic moment
The crisis is inspiring some Czech politicians, like Veselý, to recall the more than 40 years of Soviet control of the country. In 1968, Soviet Union armies invaded Czechoslovakia to stop a brief attempt under Alexander Dubček’s leadership to relax severe Soviet-era restrictions.

Two decades later, the country rose up against the Communist government in December 1989 and put an end to Soviet domination, led by dissident and former Czech President Václav Havel.

The Czech announcement comes as relations between Moscow and the West have grown increasingly tense.

On Thursday, Poland said it had kicked out three Russian diplomats for “activities detrimental” to the country. That same day, the United States expelled 10 Russian diplomats and imposed sanctions against several dozen individuals and companies over the Kremlin’s alleged election interference and hacking of federal agencies.

And looming over everything is Russia’s military build-up along its border with Ukraine, leaving Western allies fearing a possible invasion may be on the horizon, evoking Moscow’s decision to annex Ukraine’s Crimea region in 2014.

The Czech ambassador to NATO, Jakub Landovský, said the Czech government will ask to discuss Russia’s role in the Czech warehouse blast at the North Atlantic Council, NATO’s principal political decision-making body. This could take place as early as Tuesday.

In addition, Babiš said that he had spoken about the case with the president of the European Council, Charles Michel, and would inform EU partners in detail at the next summit.

Hamáček, who is also interim foreign minister, said on Twitter Sunday that he would discuss the issue on Monday at the meeting of the EU foreign ministers.

The Czechs received messages of support and solidarity from a number of allies throughout Sunday, including the United States.

“The United States stands with its steadfast Ally, the Czech Republic,” the U.S. Embassy in Prague tweeted. “We appreciate their significant action to impose costs on Russia for its dangerous actions on Czech soil.”

In addition, Czech EU Commissioner Věra Jourová tweeted: “In situations like this, strong and reliable partnerships are more needed than ever.”

Russia is expected to retaliate in kind to the expulsions. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called the Czech decision to expel the diplomats “tricks,” and told reporters in Moscow, “Prague is well aware of what will follow such tricks.”

(18.04.2021. via politico.eu)

Merkel loyalist Armin Laschet and Bavarian leader Markus Söder have both said they are ready to run for Germany’s chancellor. The conservative Christian Democrat-Christian Social Union bloc must now decide.

Germany’s ruling conservative bloc met on Sunday to discuss who would stand as the successor to Angela Merkel as the bloc’s candidate for chancellor in this year’s election.

The leading candidates to fill Merkel’s shoes are Armin Laschet, the state premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, and Markus Söder, the state premier of Bavaria. Laschet is seen as Merkel’s favorite and currently leads her Christian Democratic Union (CDU), while Söder serves as the head of Bavaria’s Christian Social Union (CSU), which is the CDU’s closest political ally.

“We have both declared that we are ready,” Söder said during the party meeting, according to reports from the DPA news agency. He said the discussion was “not decisive,” as both candidates were suitable for the job.

Söder stressed that the decision would be based on what is best for the country, not on the candidates’ individual ambitions, and that harmony in the bloc was of utmost importance.

“We don’t quarrel on the basics,” Söder said.

The CDU and CSU are part of a grand coalition with the left-leaning Social Democrats (SPD). Merkel — who has been chancellor since 2005 — said she would not stand again.

DW’s Political Editor Michaela Küfner said Laschet was on the defensive as Söder declared his intention to succeed Merkel.

What is the rivalry about?

Before addressing the press on Sunday, the 54-year-old Söder expressed his willingness to run as the candidate for the conservative bloc for the first time on Sunday.

“If the CDU were willing to support me, I would be ready. If the CDU does not want it, then we will carry on working together without a grudge,” Söder told the meeting.

The CDU chose Laschet as its new party leader earlier in the year. By convention, the party leader stands as the chancellor candidate for the party.

The 60-year-old Laschet, the premier of Germany’s most populous state, has seen his popularity fall, while Söder has become a more popular choice among conservative and nonconservative voters alike, according to recent polls.

Laschet told the newspaper Bild am Sonntag that he expects the party to make a quick decision.

“Unity is very important. It would do the CDU and CSU a lot of good to make the decision together. And very promptly,” he said.

Following Sunday’s meeting, Laschet said it was not clear when the decision would be made.

Where do German conservatives stand with the voters?

The CDU is facing a decline in popularity after a series of pandemic-related scandals. Polls had shown general support for the conservatives during the beginning of the health crisis last year, but the bloc took a hit after several members, including lawmakers in the Bundestag, were forced to step down following allegations of corruption.

The government has faced criticism for its handling of the vaccine rollout and restrictions during the third wave of COVID-19 infections.

The party recorded historically low results in state elections in Rhineland-Palatinate and Baden-Württemberg in March.

(12. 4. 2021. via dw.com)

Dear friends,

You can find below the brand new paper of the institute:

https://ies.lublin.pl/pub/publikacje/policy-papers/ies-policy-papers-6-6-2020.pdf

Dear friends and partners!

The Director of our Center tried to summarize some important details about the COVID-19 pandemic. He also raised some questions about this situation.

Unfortunately, our Center could not organise the annual summer seminar this year, therefore we tried to find a new way to  reach all of you and spread the basic idea of our Institute, namely thinking about our future, thinking about Europe and the World. Feel free to express your views, opinions or feelings about the pandemic! Fell free to react to the questions of the Director! Write us about your thoughts!

We hope you would like to participate in our online debate. We will post the best essays on our homepage, and we are going to invite the best writers to our online debate with our Director.

We are waiting for your comments, essays, thoughts etc. to peter.galambos@tihanypolitics.eu (Deadline: 31.8.2020)

Stay safe!

György Odze director

and the TEAM of the TCPA

The Virus

It was an unprecedented crisis though not unpredictable. For years health risks in China were a potential time-bomb for the whole world. It was only question of time and luck when would this blow in to our faces. The Hungarian political life – as a whole and as other nations as well– acted late and in a hurry. However, after a week of doing nothing Viktor Orbán realised that he can make an opportunity out of the crisis by showing his real face: the militant and strong leader who likes to be in the frontline or create his own frontline if necessary. He has a two-third majority in parliament which enables him to act as he pleases but this was not enough for him. He raised the „Emergency Situation” rifle which allowed him to rule by decree and he used it effectively against the „liberals”, the media and „people who spread rumours”. There was an incredible rise in importing Chinese stuff, including almost 20 thousand ventilators in secret deals.

However, other players of the political game could not benefit from the situation. Oppositon leadears had no idea how to handle the situation so at the end Fidesz could gain another victory – this time not at the polls but in the game of popularity figures.

The health risk might be over but nobody knows now how to handle the economic crisis, what will happen to those firms which collapsed and to those people who have lost their jobs. Not only is Hungary in danger now, but the world – which did not wakeup in time.

And China came out clean after all.

It is not over, but it might happen again.

*

The question now is: what’s next? Populist governments seem to survive and even profit from the crisis. „Virus” was an excellent, invisible enemy and the fight against it needed no explanation or excuse. Was it really so dangerous? Did it really take so many lives? Were the measures taken more than necessary? Was it justified that elderly people should stay at home isolated not only from the disease but also from their only connection to the world: their loved ones who were also their only help in everyday life? Were all measures justified? Is it a normal syndrome that cities were isolated from each other? Is it a normal phenomenon that people are arrested for „spreading rumours” through internet? Where is the border between human liberty and social danger?  Should certain measures, like wearing masks be compulsory or let each of us decide individually. Could the states finance the losses of companies by taxpayers money or let them try to survive alone? Were mistakes done by governments in trusting China? If yes, who and when? Are there any real moral or practical lesson to be learnt and will we really learn from it? Are we, each and everyone of us, more clever than we were before? Will this crisis change our lives? Do we really want this crisis to change our lives? I suppose that this is the most important question of all. To be strong and convinced enough to change – or be ready to change.

To see daily updates and how Covid-19 has spread, please check:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

INVITATION

I have the pleasure to inform you that the Tihany Center and its team are going to organise its annual seminar in Balatonfüred (Tihany) again. This year’s topic is the following:

The Future of Europe: The Three Seas Initiative A Political and Social Cooperation

Proposed date: 27 August 30 August, 2020

Location: Balatonfüred-Tihany, Hungary

Number of participants: 35-40

Invited speakers (changes possible): Géza Jeszenszky, former minister of foreign affairs (Hungary); Dr Agata Tatarenko, Head of the Department of the Visegrad Group, Institute of Central Europe (Poland); Jonny Daniels, adviser, PR-expert (UK) Ramachandra Byrappa, expert of international relations, historian, Eötvös Loránd University (India/Hungary), dr. Jacek Bartosiak, lawyer, TSI expert (Poland), Dr. Gerhard Marchl, Head of the Department of the European Affairs, Renner Institute (Austria)

Detailed program: (TBA)

Link for registration: https://forms.gle/xFqBPLGPzb4YWKn57
Facebook event: https://www.facebook.com/events/451595768759295/

Requirements of participation: Registration, creating an essays in connection with the main topic, active participation during the seminar

Fees: All expenses (accommodation, food,) during your stay at the Lake Balaton are covered by the TCPA, if you fulfilled the requirements. That means you only have to pay for your travel costs.

About us: The Tihany Centre for Political Analysis was established in 2013 as an independent research institute. György Odze, a retired diplomat is the owner and the director of the organisation. It is located in Tihany at the Lake Balaton (Hungary) in one of the most beautiful part of the country. The TCPA has a wide-range of activities which deal with issues important to Hungary’s sphere of interest and political environment. The Center’s primary area is Central Europe, Visegrad countries, but we also pay attention to the changes in Europe, the transatlantic ties and security issues. We offer practical solutions and keep an eye on how our theories work in practice. Link: http://www.tihanypolitics.eu/en/

Best regards, looking for comments and propositions,
György Odze
TCPA director

INVITATION2020

We appreciate the help of the European Union!

We appreciate the help of the European Union!